Senator John Breaux (D-LA) has announced that he will not seek reelection next year, marking the fifth Democratic Senator to announce such plans. The other four are Presidential Candidate John Edwards (D-NC), former candidate Bob Graham (D-FL), Ernest "Fritz" Hollings (D-SC) and Zell Miller (D-GA). All five Senators hail from the south, a region where Democrats have been slipping in recent years. Further, all five seats are considered up for grabs or Republican locks, and if convential wisdom holds true, by January 2005 Republicans will be within easy reach of the 60 votes needed to prevent Democratic filibusters.Beyond the effect these decisions have on Senate buisness, the departures deliver a blow to a party who has been out of power for almost four years.
The only hope the Democrats may be able to cling to is a recent trend of voters deliberately splitting their ticket in order to produce divided government. According to authors V. Lance Tarrance, Walter De Vries and Donna L. Mosher, whose book Checked and Balanced (I have a copy) outlines this emerging phenomenon, there is a significant number of voters who purposefully split their ticket to prevent one-party rule. If the trend holds, Democrats may benefit. However, my guess is that divided government is a lot more attractive during peacetime, when political debate is dominated by how and where to spend taxpayer money. Now that foreign policy and homeland security are the two biggest issues, people may look for unified government to prevent gridlock, rather than encourage it. Something to chew on.
Tony
