Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean will officially end his bid for the Democratic Presidential nomination today, sources say. Dean, who made a poor third place showing in last night's Wisconsin primary, is not set to endorse any of the remaining candidates. There has been some speculation, however, that Dean may put his weight behind Sen. John Edwards (D-NC), whom Dean has said has a better chance than front-runner Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) to defeat President Bush in the fall. Dean spoke with Edwards on the phone last night to congratulate him on his strong second place finish, but there was no discussion of an endorsement.The race is now essentially a two man contest, with Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) and Rev. Al Sharpton continuing to fight for prime-time speaking slots at the Democratic Convention in Boston. With Dean out, John Edwards has a chance to challenge John Kerry, who won last night's primary by six percentage points, directly, and we could see Edwards increase his recent attacks on Kerry's support for NAFTA and other free-trade agreements.
Beyond the immediate reprecussions, what does the ultimate failure of the Dean campaign say about American politics? Dean's campaign, which essentially relied on young, wired political neophytes and placed an importance on the internet that has never before been seen in a presidential campaign, made great strides in gathering support and cash, but failed to deliver even one primary for the former physician.
Will we ever see another serious presidential contender adopt the Dean strategy, in even a modified form? You never know. Remeber, it's not as if the Dean campaign was a complete and utter failure. Dean was a nobody candidate with next to no chance of getting the nomination, who eventually became the front-runner until his loss to John Kerry in Iowa. The question is this: what went wrong, and can it be fixed? (I guess technically that's two questions.)
One of the factors leading to Dean's downfall is what is called "negative" campaigning, which once again proved successful. Once Dean gained front-runner status he was under attack from several candidates for several weeks, until his support was eroded enough to hand Kerry a victory in Iowa. Kerry, on the other hand, has not seen these kinds of attacks since he became the prohibitive favorite following his back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.
Kerry will wrap up the nomination by Super Tuesday if Edwards fails to learn the Dean lesson and step-up the attacks and the rhetoric. This is not to say Edwards should pursue the intern story, for example. He needs to attack Kerry on his record in the Senate and on the campaign trail. Kerry's political career is rife with contradiction and there is certainly some hay to be made from this. The challenge for Edwards will be to find a balance between laying out an optimistic vision for the future and hammering away at Kerry. This is no small task, but Edwards will continue to come in a close second if he fails to get tougher. And without at least a couple of wins on Super Tuesday, he's finished.
Tony
