Taking most of the drama out of the Democratic Presidential nomination race, Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA) beat former Vermont Governor Howard Dean by twelve points in yesterday's New Hampshire Primary. (Click here for exit poll analysis) Kerry, whose surprise first place finish in Iowa one week ago helped to spur on this victory, is now comfortably embedded as the party's front-runner. The Dean campaign will have the money and organization that will enable them to challenge Kerry as the contest moves to a national stage, but the momentem is now solidly behind Kerry and Dean is facing a long uphill fight.The other big story of the night was Senator John Edwards (D-NC), who did worse (at least in my opinion) than expected by coming in a very close fourth, behind Retired Army General Wesley Clark. Edwards spent part of yesterday deflecting reporters' suggestions that he's running for the Vice Presidency. I felt that a strong third-place finish for Edwards, one where he was closer to number two than four, would emnable him to get some sort of bounce out of New Hampshire as the race moves down South. Tuesdays' resutls showed, however, that Edwards was unable to deliver the knockout punch that takes Clark out of the race and winnows the field to Kerry, Dean and Edwards.
Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) failed to pull double digits in a state he had placed all of his resources in. I suspect poor finishes all around next Tuesday, and a signifcant lack of cash pushes Lieberman out of the contest by next Wednesday.
Personally, I had it Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark. So, you can take the rest of my commentary with a grain of salt if you'd like. I think Kerry can end any kind of serious challenge by placing a strong second in South Carolina (a state where he recently picked up the endorsement of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), South Carolina's most powerful black politician) and a win in Missouri (where neighboring governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa will campaign for Kerry). Unless Kerry does something unimaginable, I think he'll be the clear nominee by next Wednesday. It wouldn't surprise me to see Dean compete for Super Tuesday votes, but I don't expect any kind of contested convention.
Tony
