Hey Jerks
Newsflash...for scumbags proper (Marc/Tony) or those of you who are scumbags by proxy...I now have internet at home. Beware.

Show Me The Money
Is Dean broke, or is this the rope-a-dope?

Rivals including front-runner John F. Kerry are buying TV ads in South Carolina and other states holding primaries or caucuses Tuesday, but the former Vermont governor has chosen to forgo further advertising in this round, focusing instead on the Feb. 7 caucuses in Michigan and Washington state, campaign officials said. The decision marks a notable shift in fortunes for an innovative candidate who revolutionized fundraising via the Internet and led all Democrats in 2003 by collecting nearly $41 million.

The Deanyboppers on the blog are starting to sound worried:

People need some guidance here :} Need to know where we are going..whats going on with the ads..if money situation is ok-You guys NEED to address this in a thread...please :}

Could someone please explain to me how we can possibly be in financial trouble with a reported $42 million raised and a million on the bat this week?

I'm so nervous. please show us you can win. i'm a bit upset about pulling all ads in feb 7th states. wouldn't it be nice if you guys could make stunning ads and run them 2 days before the election? or right after super bowl sunday?

WHAT THE HELL HAPPENED TO THE MONEY?!? Just three weeks ago it looked like WE had the best operation going - and now we can't even afford to put up ads in the next seven states? I think HQ owes us all a frank explanation as to where our money has gone, and why it wasn't used more effectively to get us the nomination, let alone take on George W. Bush.

Now Dean has to pray that everybody else drops out after Feb. 3, or else this strategy is a bust. How much do you want to bet that Brokaw asks Dean about money during the debate tonight?

Marc

It's gonna be bigger than 10 Super Bowls
Lacking the usual amount of fanfare, Super Bowl week has finally arrived. And despite my excitment over both the game itself and the atmosphere surrounding it, I've gotta say that this is probably the least star-studded Super Sunday that I can remember. Neither the Patriots nor the Panthers provide us with anything approaching a star in the NFL. (Tom Brady is probably the closest we've got to true star-power for this game.)

The Washington Post's Michael Wilbon is spending the week in Houston covering the game. So far this week he's written columns about the Panthers GM, Patriots place kicker Adam Vinatieri, and Panthers return specialist, part-time running back and former XFL star Rod Smart (a.k.a. He Hate Me). Not exactly the Mt. Rushmore of professional football.

In spite of this, many observers (myself included) are expecting a good game between two teams who match-up well. Much to the NFL's chagrin, they're not going to be able to sell McNabb, or Manning or Dante Hall or, well, anybody. Now they've got to sell the game itself...and they gave themselves two weeks to do that.

The Super Bowl is not about football fans. Conference Championship Sunday is about real football fans. The Super Bowl is about drinking, and parties, and food and commercials. It is the game as happening. The snag in this year's plan is that, while the game presents interesting matchups that true football fans will revel in, the star-power to fuel the hype for two weeks simply isn't there. No other year has provided such a clear example that the NFL's occassional use of an extra week between Conference Championship Sunday and the Super Bowl is a bad policy. In this year's case, neither team had the ability or desire to fuel the hype machine for an extra week. On the reverse side, when teams do have bonafide superstars, the game is often over-hyped, leading to dissappointment no matter the outcome. I understand the league's desire to extend its season, and its ability to make money, by keeping the extra week. But the NFL must realize that the fans are happier and the games are often better (or at least seem better) when we've only got one week to wait.

Tony

Green Ketchup
Via Christopher Horner at National Review:

On January 24, before the first vote was cast in New Hampshire's Democratic primary, the League of Conservation Voters (LCV) endorsed Senator John Kerry (D., Mass.) for president. Weeks earlier, in an entirely unrelated matter, the Heinz Family Foundation provided an "unrestricted-use" grant of a quarter million dollars to a group represented on the LCV board.

Specifically, the Heinz Foundation awarded a $250,000 Heinz Award grant to Peggy Shepard of West Harlem Environmental Action in December. Shepard sits on the board of directors for the national LCV.

From the Heinz Foundation press release:

In addition to the $250,000 award for their unrestricted use, recipients are presented with a medallion inscribed with the image of Senator Heinz. On its reverse side is a rendering of a globe passing between two hands, symbolizing partnership, continuity and values carried on to the next generation.

Marc

Dean-O-Phobia Cured, Kerry-Itis Epidemic Imminent
The past couple of weeks, Jonathan Chait of The New Republic has written the Dean-O-Phobe, a blog devoted to pointing out Howard Dean's flaws. Yesterday, he posted his last entry, saying both Dean and the idea of "Deanism" are finished. However, Chait isn't too excited about the alternative:

Finally, John Kerry takes all the fun out of Dean-o-phobia. Indeed, if there's anybody who could make Dean attractive, it's Kerry. Kerry is a miserable candidate, bereft of political skills, and possessing of a record and a persona tailor-made for Karl Rove. The Republicans will merely have to say about Kerry what they said about Gore--that he wants to be on every side of every issue, that he's culturally out of touch with mainstream America, that he's a pompous bore--and this time the sale will be easier, because all these things are far more true of Kerry than of Gore.

And:

I'd take Kerry over Dean, but it's a choice of defeat over disaster, akin to--as my colleague Frank Foer puts it--the Republicans selecting Bob Dole over Pat Buchanan in 1996.

There's your slogan, Democrats: John Kerry - the Democratic Bob Dole!

Marc

John Zogby, Superfraud
I make this promise to our readers: I will never mention a Zogby poll ever again. Check out this steaming turd:

	1/24-26	1/23-25	1/22-24	1/21-23	1/20-22	1/19-21	1/18-20
Kerry	37%	31%	30%	31%	30%	27%	23%
Dean	24	28	23	22	22	24	25
Edwards	12	12	9	8	7	8	7
Clark	9	13	13	14	14	15	16
Lieberman	9	9	9	7	6	6	7
Kucinich	3	2	2	2	1	1	2
Sharpton	0.1	1	1	1	0.1	0	0.1
Undecided	3*	3*	13	13	17	17	16

Zogby explains Kerry's overnight 10-point (!) pickup thusly:

For Kerry the dam burst after 5PM on Monday. Kerry had a huge day as Undecideds broke his way by a factor of four to one over Dean. Dean recaptured a strong lead among 18-29 year olds, Northerners, singles and Progressives. He narrowed the gap among men, and college educated, however Kerry opened up huge leads among women, union voters, and voters over 65 years of age. These groups gave Kerry the big momentum heading into the primary.

Translation:
In order to get publicity, I 'polled' a tight race two days ago. But to cover my ass, I posted the same numbers as everyone else today. I am a self-promoting clown.

Marc

Democrats say yes, we do want another liberal from Massachusetts
Taking most of the drama out of the Democratic Presidential nomination race, Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA) beat former Vermont Governor Howard Dean by twelve points in yesterday's New Hampshire Primary. (Click here for exit poll analysis) Kerry, whose surprise first place finish in Iowa one week ago helped to spur on this victory, is now comfortably embedded as the party's front-runner. The Dean campaign will have the money and organization that will enable them to challenge Kerry as the contest moves to a national stage, but the momentem is now solidly behind Kerry and Dean is facing a long uphill fight.

The other big story of the night was Senator John Edwards (D-NC), who did worse (at least in my opinion) than expected by coming in a very close fourth, behind Retired Army General Wesley Clark. Edwards spent part of yesterday deflecting reporters' suggestions that he's running for the Vice Presidency. I felt that a strong third-place finish for Edwards, one where he was closer to number two than four, would emnable him to get some sort of bounce out of New Hampshire as the race moves down South. Tuesdays' resutls showed, however, that Edwards was unable to deliver the knockout punch that takes Clark out of the race and winnows the field to Kerry, Dean and Edwards.

Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) failed to pull double digits in a state he had placed all of his resources in. I suspect poor finishes all around next Tuesday, and a signifcant lack of cash pushes Lieberman out of the contest by next Wednesday.

Personally, I had it Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark. So, you can take the rest of my commentary with a grain of salt if you'd like. I think Kerry can end any kind of serious challenge by placing a strong second in South Carolina (a state where he recently picked up the endorsement of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), South Carolina's most powerful black politician) and a win in Missouri (where neighboring governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa will campaign for Kerry). Unless Kerry does something unimaginable, I think he'll be the clear nominee by next Wednesday. It wouldn't surprise me to see Dean compete for Super Tuesday votes, but I don't expect any kind of contested convention.

Tony

Comeback Kid?
ARG's New Hampshire tracking poll has Kerry at 38%, with Dean, Edwards, and Clark bunched up between 15% and 18%. Zogby gives Kerry a 30%-23% lead over Dean.

If Kerry ends up in the low 30's, with Dean coming in second in the low 20's, does that make Dean the 'Comeback Kid' in a two-man race? Now Dean's "I Have A Scream" speech helps him, just as Clinton's Gennifer Flowers fiasco helped to lower expectations. Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas by almost 10 points in the '92 primary, but gained the momentum and narrowed the field.

John Ellis says of a strong second-place Dean finish:

The Rule of Two [i.e. Fiji Math] would thus require the scribes to frame the race as Kerry vs. Dean. But they've long since decided that Dean is a goner. Cognitive dissonance crisis grips the Sheraton Wayfarer.

The 'Comeback Dean' thesis is helped by the fact that the media HATES Kerry.

Marc

Sister Souljah endorses Clark
At the conclusion of Thursday's Democratic debate I, along with Freddy "the Beetle" Barnes, said that the only candidate who seemed to do himself any harm was retired General Wesley Clark. Well, today's Washington Post has an article about the Clark campaign losing ground.

Clark's entire campaign strategy was based on Dean winning Iowa handily and then facing Dean in New Hampshire in what would be essentially a two-man race. Clark was counting on an anti-Dean sentiment, guessing that voters may begin having second thoughts about Dean's ability to beat Bush. Instead, Dean took third in Iowa and now Clark is just another candidate, and not a very good one at that.

At a recent campaign rally, controversial filmmaker Michael Moore appeared alongside Clark accusing President Bush of being a "deserter." Clark said nothing. (Click here to read Moore's original letter posted on the DraftClark Website.)At the debate he was given considerable opportunities to repudiate Moore's comment, but refused to do so. News stories hence have been about Clark's campaign losing steam.

As I see this, there are two ways to interpret it. First, Clark is a novice candidate being exposed as not really knowing what he's doing. Further, the leadership skills he claims to own are called into question when he refuses to denounce a popular, but wrong, supporter. If he can't tell Michael Moore he's wrong at the risk of losing whatever support he's generated from the left, then can Clark be counted on to stand up in the face of adversity for what's right.

Another interpretation places blame primarily on the media. The media has propped Clark up for months in the hopes of finding an interesting race to cover. However, I think they lack respect for Clark for the same reason that so many people were drawn to him in the first place: because he's an outsider who hasn't played the game before. Now that Clark has committed a somewhat minor and arguably irrelevant gaffe, the media has gone at him hard in order to expose him as being in over his head, an assumption they've probably had since the beginning.

Honestly, I don't know which of these interpretations is more accurate, or if they're accurate at all. Maybe Clark's number's are dropping simply because Kerry's now viable. Whatever the reason, I'm predicting Clark finishes fourth in New Hampshire, and doesn't make it to Super Tuesday.

Tony

Red Moon
A NYT piece outlines the upcoming space rivalry between the US and China (link via Gregg Easterbrook):

Some analysts contend that China's manned space vehicle is specifically designed for potential military uses. The Chinese, meanwhile, saw the technological prowess displayed by the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq, and are now emphasizing the importance of "information warfare," with the need for a presence in space.

Easterbrook speculates that Bush's space initiative is an Star Wars-style attempt to spend the Red Chinese into the ground:

If Beijing wastes inexpressible quantities of yuan building some kind of installation on the Moon, its regular armed forces will be starved for funds and impotent for decades.

I don't give the Bush people that much credit. I think the Mars talk is just an election year attempt to sound Kennedyesque - and a failed attempt at that. The space initiative was conspicuously absent from the State of the Union speech. As far as the Bush administration takes the space program seriously, I think they see it as a defense industry corporate welfare program/intergalactic pork barrel - just like another Texas president.

As for the Chinese, they are not bluffing. They missed out on the last great age of exploration, and spent the next 500 years holding the short end of the stick. I don't think they're about to let the roundeyes win by default again. When the Zheng He lands on the Moon, don't say I didn't warn you.

Marc

Addendum: What is the threatening nickname for the Red Chinese threat? Russian is to Bear as Chinese is to... Dragon? Panda? Cast your vote.

"Debate" is "e-tabed" spelled backwards
The seven remaining Democratic candidates for President met last night for their final debate before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. It was probably the least interesting debate so far, as each candidate stepped very lightly, attempting to avoid criticizing anyone except President Bush. No one really did anything to dislodge Kerry from his front-runner position and the only candidate that I felt did poorly was Wesley Clark. Clark, a retired General and recent member of the Democratic party, spent a majority of his allotted time explaining why he was a Democrat and attempting to diffuse the journalist panel's accusations that he is, in effect, a political carpet bagger. I think Clark's performance may allow Edwards a strong third place, strong enough that a win for Edwards in South Carolina could help to prolong the primary season beyond what we originally expected.

Click for full debate transcript

DNC Chariman Terry McAuliffe's goal of having the nomination sewn up by somebody by early March, in order to give that person more time to campaign against President Bush, may not be met. A longer campaign could benefit Dean, who has considerably more money than any of the other candidates. However, if Kerry continues to be seen as the front-runner he will find an easier time raising money, particularly after candidates start dropping out. We could be in for a long contest, but I think right now its Kerry's nomination to lose.

I'm currently in the process of codifying last night's debate in an attempt to determine how many questions were related to policy and how many to campaign strategy. I think the results could be interesting, and I'll post them as soon as I've got them. I'll include a methodology, but I'm leaning towrad using methodology similiar to what Thomas Patterson used in his book, Out of Order when he examined New York Times campaign stories to determine how many framed the campaign in terms of the horse race and how many stories were policy-driven. Stay Tuned

Tony

SOTU
Ken Shepherd blogged the State Of The Union almost line-by-line, as did Stephen Green.

My thoughts:
Aside from the pure Clintonism, like money for drug testing in schools, it was pretty good. I liked the emphasis on the Iraq and terrorism, and especially this line linking the Iraq war to Libya's WMD surrender:

For diplomacy to be effective, words must be credible. And no one can now doubt the word of America.

And he had an excellent response to all those ninnies who think the greatest nation on Earth should let a bunch of European socialists decide its foreign policy, first listing our REAL allies:

Some critics have said our duties in Iraq must be internationalized. This particular criticism is hard to explain to our partners in Britain, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Poland, Denmark, Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Romania, the Netherlands. . . . Norway, El Salvador and the 17 other countries that have committed troops to Iraq.

and then raising a big middle finger to Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, John Kerry, and the rest of the traitors:

There is a difference, however, between leading a coalition of many nations and submitting to the objections of a few. America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country.

Full text here.

Marc

Quotaback Quits; Philly Phlops
Straight from the quitter's mouth:

I'm not a quitter, and I never give up. I've always said I'll go out there with one arm or one leg. I'm a fighter.

If the NFL and the sports media need a black quarterback to put on a pedestal, forget McNabb - what about Steve McNair? You think he would have sat out the whole fourth quarter while his team lost their third championship game in a row? Fuck McNabb and fuck the gutless turds in the media who won't call him out for the quitter he is.

Marc

Media Comes From Behind To Win Iowa Caucus
So the media will get their horse race after all. I have to admit that I much as I wanted to see Kerry put to a merciful end, I am also looking forward to a long race and (please, God) an open convention. But the real issue is: how did this happen?

1. Gephardt wasn't viable

In the Iowa caucuses, you have to have the support of 15% of the voters in any given precinct to get any delegates. If you don't reach this 15% threshold, your group is declared "unviable" and dispersed. When Gephardt voters had to pick a second choice, they overwhelmingly went for Kerry and Edwards: Dean was the second choice for only 5% of Gephardt supporters, compared to 24% for both Kerry and Edwards.

2. Late-deciding voters

42% of Iowa caucusgoers made up their minds in the last week of the campaign, 21% in the last three days. Late deciding voters are less informed and less ideological. It looks like they turned on the TV the day of the caucus and picked the least objectionable candidate, which - thanks to the barrage of late media negativity on Dean - was Kerry or Edwards. Those two "surging" candidates won 70% of the late-deciding voters.

3. Turnout

Turnout in the Iowa caucuses was huge - 122,000 voters, which almost broke the 1988 record turnout. This helped negate Dean's advantage in organization. The Dean campaign is best suited to turn out a small hard core of supporters, which would have been enough to win had turnout been nearer 2000 levels.

4. People don't like Howard Dean

Especially middle-aged women. See James Lileks:

I can imagine a nice Iowa lady of a certain age, sitting in a coffee shop, enjoying her pie, watching the TV crew pack up after Doctor Dean had blown in and out of Bev?s Chatterbox Cafe. ?Well, he certainly does think well of himself,? she might have thought. Translation: she wouldn?t spit on his face if his nose was on fire.

Dean didn't help himself by barging into a MLK Day ceremony with an army of media, later arguing with reporters and swiping at boom mikes like a scumbag on 60 Minutes. And if you haven't heard this, well... it speaks for itself.

A reader on National Review's The Corner said that Dean's primal scream might have been his "Dead Zone moment" - referring to a scene in the Stephen King novel where a presidential candidate reveals his hidden evil side by using a small child as a human shield during an assasination attempt. We'll see - those New Hampshire wackos did vote for Pat Buchanan after all.

A long, drawn-out contest should actually favor Dean, who has a big pile of money, and supporters in states that other campaigns aren't even thinking about - where turnout will be low, and Dean's cadre of zealots can make a difference. Dean will not finish in single digits in any state of the Union, which is more than can any other candidate can say. As long as he doesn't start drinking blood on stage or anything, he still has a good shot.

Marc

Remind Me Again Why I Voted Republican?
This morning I attended a taping of the Marc Steiner Show in Annapolis, which featured Governor Bob Ehrlich, Speaker Mike Busch, and Senate President (and arch-dickhead) Mike Miller.

At one point, Steiner called Ehrlich a "no taxes" guy, implying that Ehrlich would not raise any taxes to close the impending deficit. Ehrlich corrected Steiner, saying, "no sales tax, no income tax". Ehrlich went on to say that the sales tax is a regressive tax that falls disproportionately on lower-income people. What Ehrlich failed to include in his no-tax pledge was the gas tax, another regressive tax that hurts lower-income people.

So what the hell was the point of electing a Republican governor, if all he is going to do is raise my taxes? I swear, if Ehrlich raises taxes (as I predict he will), I will campaign for Martin O'Malley. I will start a 'Republicans For O'Malley' organization. I will hand out 'Ehrlich Lied' bumper stickers. It makes me want to vomit.

Missing from the panel was Senate (Permanent) Minority Leader Stoltzfus. I wanted to ask him how the GOP plans to gain any seats in the General Assembly when just about every viable Republican candidate has been ensconced in a cushy state job. The Marc Steiner show will air at noon and 7PM on WYPR 88.1.

Incidentally, Virginia has a similar problem with tax-and-spend Republicans. Has it ever occured to these people that maybe government should spend less money when it is broke?

Marc

Addendum: Just read this in the Post:

Ehrlich has not unveiled most details of his legislative agenda, including a slot machine bill and his proposed state budget, which is scheduled to become public next week. But administration officials and legislators said his otherwise lean budget will include $130 million for pay raises for nearly 80,000 employees, which if approved would be their first salary increases in about 30 months.

The proposal calls for a cost-of-living allowance of nearly 2 percent. Workers in certain jobs would receive larger raises, according to officials.

I wonder who's filling those "certain jobs"? Keep on cashing those government checks, you Republican swine! Your days are numbered.