Democrats say yes, we do want another liberal from Massachusetts
Taking most of the drama out of the Democratic Presidential nomination race, Senator John F. Kerry (D-MA) beat former Vermont Governor Howard Dean by twelve points in yesterday's New Hampshire Primary. (Click here for exit poll analysis) Kerry, whose surprise first place finish in Iowa one week ago helped to spur on this victory, is now comfortably embedded as the party's front-runner. The Dean campaign will have the money and organization that will enable them to challenge Kerry as the contest moves to a national stage, but the momentem is now solidly behind Kerry and Dean is facing a long uphill fight.

The other big story of the night was Senator John Edwards (D-NC), who did worse (at least in my opinion) than expected by coming in a very close fourth, behind Retired Army General Wesley Clark. Edwards spent part of yesterday deflecting reporters' suggestions that he's running for the Vice Presidency. I felt that a strong third-place finish for Edwards, one where he was closer to number two than four, would emnable him to get some sort of bounce out of New Hampshire as the race moves down South. Tuesdays' resutls showed, however, that Edwards was unable to deliver the knockout punch that takes Clark out of the race and winnows the field to Kerry, Dean and Edwards.

Senator Joe Lieberman (D-CT) failed to pull double digits in a state he had placed all of his resources in. I suspect poor finishes all around next Tuesday, and a signifcant lack of cash pushes Lieberman out of the contest by next Wednesday.

Personally, I had it Dean, Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, Clark. So, you can take the rest of my commentary with a grain of salt if you'd like. I think Kerry can end any kind of serious challenge by placing a strong second in South Carolina (a state where he recently picked up the endorsement of Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), South Carolina's most powerful black politician) and a win in Missouri (where neighboring governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa will campaign for Kerry). Unless Kerry does something unimaginable, I think he'll be the clear nominee by next Wednesday. It wouldn't surprise me to see Dean compete for Super Tuesday votes, but I don't expect any kind of contested convention.

Tony

Comeback Kid?
ARG's New Hampshire tracking poll has Kerry at 38%, with Dean, Edwards, and Clark bunched up between 15% and 18%. Zogby gives Kerry a 30%-23% lead over Dean.

If Kerry ends up in the low 30's, with Dean coming in second in the low 20's, does that make Dean the 'Comeback Kid' in a two-man race? Now Dean's "I Have A Scream" speech helps him, just as Clinton's Gennifer Flowers fiasco helped to lower expectations. Clinton lost to Paul Tsongas by almost 10 points in the '92 primary, but gained the momentum and narrowed the field.

John Ellis says of a strong second-place Dean finish:

The Rule of Two [i.e. Fiji Math] would thus require the scribes to frame the race as Kerry vs. Dean. But they've long since decided that Dean is a goner. Cognitive dissonance crisis grips the Sheraton Wayfarer.

The 'Comeback Dean' thesis is helped by the fact that the media HATES Kerry.

Marc

Sister Souljah endorses Clark
At the conclusion of Thursday's Democratic debate I, along with Freddy "the Beetle" Barnes, said that the only candidate who seemed to do himself any harm was retired General Wesley Clark. Well, today's Washington Post has an article about the Clark campaign losing ground.

Clark's entire campaign strategy was based on Dean winning Iowa handily and then facing Dean in New Hampshire in what would be essentially a two-man race. Clark was counting on an anti-Dean sentiment, guessing that voters may begin having second thoughts about Dean's ability to beat Bush. Instead, Dean took third in Iowa and now Clark is just another candidate, and not a very good one at that.

At a recent campaign rally, controversial filmmaker Michael Moore appeared alongside Clark accusing President Bush of being a "deserter." Clark said nothing. (Click here to read Moore's original letter posted on the DraftClark Website.)At the debate he was given considerable opportunities to repudiate Moore's comment, but refused to do so. News stories hence have been about Clark's campaign losing steam.

As I see this, there are two ways to interpret it. First, Clark is a novice candidate being exposed as not really knowing what he's doing. Further, the leadership skills he claims to own are called into question when he refuses to denounce a popular, but wrong, supporter. If he can't tell Michael Moore he's wrong at the risk of losing whatever support he's generated from the left, then can Clark be counted on to stand up in the face of adversity for what's right.

Another interpretation places blame primarily on the media. The media has propped Clark up for months in the hopes of finding an interesting race to cover. However, I think they lack respect for Clark for the same reason that so many people were drawn to him in the first place: because he's an outsider who hasn't played the game before. Now that Clark has committed a somewhat minor and arguably irrelevant gaffe, the media has gone at him hard in order to expose him as being in over his head, an assumption they've probably had since the beginning.

Honestly, I don't know which of these interpretations is more accurate, or if they're accurate at all. Maybe Clark's number's are dropping simply because Kerry's now viable. Whatever the reason, I'm predicting Clark finishes fourth in New Hampshire, and doesn't make it to Super Tuesday.

Tony

Red Moon
A NYT piece outlines the upcoming space rivalry between the US and China (link via Gregg Easterbrook):

Some analysts contend that China's manned space vehicle is specifically designed for potential military uses. The Chinese, meanwhile, saw the technological prowess displayed by the United States in Afghanistan and Iraq, and are now emphasizing the importance of "information warfare," with the need for a presence in space.

Easterbrook speculates that Bush's space initiative is an Star Wars-style attempt to spend the Red Chinese into the ground:

If Beijing wastes inexpressible quantities of yuan building some kind of installation on the Moon, its regular armed forces will be starved for funds and impotent for decades.

I don't give the Bush people that much credit. I think the Mars talk is just an election year attempt to sound Kennedyesque - and a failed attempt at that. The space initiative was conspicuously absent from the State of the Union speech. As far as the Bush administration takes the space program seriously, I think they see it as a defense industry corporate welfare program/intergalactic pork barrel - just like another Texas president.

As for the Chinese, they are not bluffing. They missed out on the last great age of exploration, and spent the next 500 years holding the short end of the stick. I don't think they're about to let the roundeyes win by default again. When the Zheng He lands on the Moon, don't say I didn't warn you.

Marc

Addendum: What is the threatening nickname for the Red Chinese threat? Russian is to Bear as Chinese is to... Dragon? Panda? Cast your vote.

"Debate" is "e-tabed" spelled backwards
The seven remaining Democratic candidates for President met last night for their final debate before Tuesday's New Hampshire primary. It was probably the least interesting debate so far, as each candidate stepped very lightly, attempting to avoid criticizing anyone except President Bush. No one really did anything to dislodge Kerry from his front-runner position and the only candidate that I felt did poorly was Wesley Clark. Clark, a retired General and recent member of the Democratic party, spent a majority of his allotted time explaining why he was a Democrat and attempting to diffuse the journalist panel's accusations that he is, in effect, a political carpet bagger. I think Clark's performance may allow Edwards a strong third place, strong enough that a win for Edwards in South Carolina could help to prolong the primary season beyond what we originally expected.

Click for full debate transcript

DNC Chariman Terry McAuliffe's goal of having the nomination sewn up by somebody by early March, in order to give that person more time to campaign against President Bush, may not be met. A longer campaign could benefit Dean, who has considerably more money than any of the other candidates. However, if Kerry continues to be seen as the front-runner he will find an easier time raising money, particularly after candidates start dropping out. We could be in for a long contest, but I think right now its Kerry's nomination to lose.

I'm currently in the process of codifying last night's debate in an attempt to determine how many questions were related to policy and how many to campaign strategy. I think the results could be interesting, and I'll post them as soon as I've got them. I'll include a methodology, but I'm leaning towrad using methodology similiar to what Thomas Patterson used in his book, Out of Order when he examined New York Times campaign stories to determine how many framed the campaign in terms of the horse race and how many stories were policy-driven. Stay Tuned

Tony

SOTU
Ken Shepherd blogged the State Of The Union almost line-by-line, as did Stephen Green.

My thoughts:
Aside from the pure Clintonism, like money for drug testing in schools, it was pretty good. I liked the emphasis on the Iraq and terrorism, and especially this line linking the Iraq war to Libya's WMD surrender:

For diplomacy to be effective, words must be credible. And no one can now doubt the word of America.

And he had an excellent response to all those ninnies who think the greatest nation on Earth should let a bunch of European socialists decide its foreign policy, first listing our REAL allies:

Some critics have said our duties in Iraq must be internationalized. This particular criticism is hard to explain to our partners in Britain, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Thailand, Italy, Spain, Poland, Denmark, Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Romania, the Netherlands. . . . Norway, El Salvador and the 17 other countries that have committed troops to Iraq.

and then raising a big middle finger to Jacques Chirac, Gerhard Schroeder, John Kerry, and the rest of the traitors:

There is a difference, however, between leading a coalition of many nations and submitting to the objections of a few. America will never seek a permission slip to defend the security of our country.

Full text here.

Marc

Quotaback Quits; Philly Phlops
Straight from the quitter's mouth:

I'm not a quitter, and I never give up. I've always said I'll go out there with one arm or one leg. I'm a fighter.

If the NFL and the sports media need a black quarterback to put on a pedestal, forget McNabb - what about Steve McNair? You think he would have sat out the whole fourth quarter while his team lost their third championship game in a row? Fuck McNabb and fuck the gutless turds in the media who won't call him out for the quitter he is.

Marc

Media Comes From Behind To Win Iowa Caucus
So the media will get their horse race after all. I have to admit that I much as I wanted to see Kerry put to a merciful end, I am also looking forward to a long race and (please, God) an open convention. But the real issue is: how did this happen?

1. Gephardt wasn't viable

In the Iowa caucuses, you have to have the support of 15% of the voters in any given precinct to get any delegates. If you don't reach this 15% threshold, your group is declared "unviable" and dispersed. When Gephardt voters had to pick a second choice, they overwhelmingly went for Kerry and Edwards: Dean was the second choice for only 5% of Gephardt supporters, compared to 24% for both Kerry and Edwards.

2. Late-deciding voters

42% of Iowa caucusgoers made up their minds in the last week of the campaign, 21% in the last three days. Late deciding voters are less informed and less ideological. It looks like they turned on the TV the day of the caucus and picked the least objectionable candidate, which - thanks to the barrage of late media negativity on Dean - was Kerry or Edwards. Those two "surging" candidates won 70% of the late-deciding voters.

3. Turnout

Turnout in the Iowa caucuses was huge - 122,000 voters, which almost broke the 1988 record turnout. This helped negate Dean's advantage in organization. The Dean campaign is best suited to turn out a small hard core of supporters, which would have been enough to win had turnout been nearer 2000 levels.

4. People don't like Howard Dean

Especially middle-aged women. See James Lileks:

I can imagine a nice Iowa lady of a certain age, sitting in a coffee shop, enjoying her pie, watching the TV crew pack up after Doctor Dean had blown in and out of Bev?s Chatterbox Cafe. ?Well, he certainly does think well of himself,? she might have thought. Translation: she wouldn?t spit on his face if his nose was on fire.

Dean didn't help himself by barging into a MLK Day ceremony with an army of media, later arguing with reporters and swiping at boom mikes like a scumbag on 60 Minutes. And if you haven't heard this, well... it speaks for itself.

A reader on National Review's The Corner said that Dean's primal scream might have been his "Dead Zone moment" - referring to a scene in the Stephen King novel where a presidential candidate reveals his hidden evil side by using a small child as a human shield during an assasination attempt. We'll see - those New Hampshire wackos did vote for Pat Buchanan after all.

A long, drawn-out contest should actually favor Dean, who has a big pile of money, and supporters in states that other campaigns aren't even thinking about - where turnout will be low, and Dean's cadre of zealots can make a difference. Dean will not finish in single digits in any state of the Union, which is more than can any other candidate can say. As long as he doesn't start drinking blood on stage or anything, he still has a good shot.

Marc

Remind Me Again Why I Voted Republican?
This morning I attended a taping of the Marc Steiner Show in Annapolis, which featured Governor Bob Ehrlich, Speaker Mike Busch, and Senate President (and arch-dickhead) Mike Miller.

At one point, Steiner called Ehrlich a "no taxes" guy, implying that Ehrlich would not raise any taxes to close the impending deficit. Ehrlich corrected Steiner, saying, "no sales tax, no income tax". Ehrlich went on to say that the sales tax is a regressive tax that falls disproportionately on lower-income people. What Ehrlich failed to include in his no-tax pledge was the gas tax, another regressive tax that hurts lower-income people.

So what the hell was the point of electing a Republican governor, if all he is going to do is raise my taxes? I swear, if Ehrlich raises taxes (as I predict he will), I will campaign for Martin O'Malley. I will start a 'Republicans For O'Malley' organization. I will hand out 'Ehrlich Lied' bumper stickers. It makes me want to vomit.

Missing from the panel was Senate (Permanent) Minority Leader Stoltzfus. I wanted to ask him how the GOP plans to gain any seats in the General Assembly when just about every viable Republican candidate has been ensconced in a cushy state job. The Marc Steiner show will air at noon and 7PM on WYPR 88.1.

Incidentally, Virginia has a similar problem with tax-and-spend Republicans. Has it ever occured to these people that maybe government should spend less money when it is broke?

Marc

Addendum: Just read this in the Post:

Ehrlich has not unveiled most details of his legislative agenda, including a slot machine bill and his proposed state budget, which is scheduled to become public next week. But administration officials and legislators said his otherwise lean budget will include $130 million for pay raises for nearly 80,000 employees, which if approved would be their first salary increases in about 30 months.

The proposal calls for a cost-of-living allowance of nearly 2 percent. Workers in certain jobs would receive larger raises, according to officials.

I wonder who's filling those "certain jobs"? Keep on cashing those government checks, you Republican swine! Your days are numbered.

The Book Market Primary
At the moment, I am working part-time at a discount bookstore called Book Market. It's a chain of temporary stores that sell remainders (the books that didn't sell at retail).

The other day, I noticed some books written by Democratic presidential candidates. Keep in mind that the more copies of your book that end up in a place like Book Market, the worse your initial sales were (and presumably, the lower your popularity):

Author	Title	# copies
Joe Lieberman	In Praise of Public Life	6 hardcover,18 paperback
	An Amazing Adventure	15 hardcover
Wesley Clark	Waging Modern War	1 hardcover

Bad news for Senator Palpatine.

Marc

Schadenfreude
LEGO has announced a $237 million loss for 2003. What is LEGO's plan for returning to its glory days (an unbroken string of profitable years from 1932 to 1998)? Owner and president, Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen, says:

We are returning to Lego's former concept. We're going to focus on building bricks as our main product, concentrating on little kids' eagerness to assemble.

We tried to follow trends, to have toys that were in fashion, that are `in' one year and `out' the next. But it didn't work.

WHAT A FUCKING CONCEPT! Well, I really love saying, "I told you so", so:

I told you so, you stupid Danish bastards!

Marc

Big Fish, Big Pond
Former Miami Dolphins Quarterback and future Hall of Famer Dan Marino has agreed to turn in his suits for, uh, nicer suits, as he is set to become the Dolphins Senior Vice-President for football operations. What exactly this title entails is anybody's guess, but according to news reports both coach Dave Wannstedt and the Dolphins GM will have to report to Marino. Marino, who never won a Super Bowl with the Fish, will stay on as a member of CBS' in-studio pre-game show through the end of this year. No word yet on who will replace Marino, but it will have to be someone with enough intelligence and wit to keep up with Jim Nantz, Deion Sanders and Boomer Esiason. My guess: Dan Fouts.

This article also notes that former Redskins guard and Pittsburgh Steeler offensive line coach Russ Grimm is a finalist for the Chicago Bears head coaching job. Anybody out there know the last guy to jump from line coach to head coach? If so, let me know.

In other NFL news, Carolina Panthers Running Back Stephen Davis may miss this Sunday's Championship game at Philadelphia because of the pulled quad he suffered during the Panthers double overtime victory over the Rams in St. Louis on Saturday.

Speaking of that Panthers - Rams game (perhaps the best game I'ver ever seen, ever. Truly a game not to be missed), Wilbon destroyed St. Louis Rams head coach Mike Martz for not going for the win during regulation, and instead allowing the clock to run out and settle for game tying field goal. In the column he calls Martz "gutless" not once, but twice.

Rooting for the Panthers though I was, I did wish upon them illwill, as the Panthers, nursing a three point lead in field goal range with the clock ticking, refused to yield to reason and run the ball on 3 and 6. Instead, they came out with an empty backfield and Carolina QB Jake Delhomme was promptly sacked, taking the Panthers out of field goal range. The Panthers were forced to punt, with enough time on the clock for the Rams to drive down the field and put the game into overtime. The Panthers eventually won, but it should never have been that close. I haven't seen TMQ yet today, but I'm sure he'll mention this affront to the football gods.

Tony

Toga! Toga!
Via Instapundit:

YESTERDAY, I linked to a story saying that Wesley Clark was trying to soften his image with Argyle sweaters. But judging from this picture, he's actually going for the John Belushi look.

Well, that's a voter demographic too. . . .

Good Christ, what a buffoon. If you missed the Clark sweater picture, it's in the comments of this post.

Marc

Whose its face endorses what's his name
Howard Dean's campaign got a blast of good news, as Iowa Senator and failed 1992 Democratic Presidential candidate Tom Harkin endorsed Dean during a press conference Friday. The announcement was held with Harkin in Des Moines and Dean still in New Hampshire, leading many to believe it may have been hurried in an effort to drown out NBC's recent airing of an interview Dean gave four years ago in which he said that the Iowa caucus was "dominated by special interests."

Dean's main political rival in Iowa, Rep. Dick Gephardt (D-Missouri), had this to say about Dean's interview:
"Who does he think the special interests are? . . . Is it the farmers? Is it the labor union members? Is it the senior citizens?"

In a word: YES

Unfortunately, what with Dean running in Iowa, he's had to back off of this ultimately truthful statement.

In more campaign news, Dean has taken a literal effort at attracted the NASCAR dad vote -- by actually sponsoring a Busch series (racing's junior circuit) race car. (You're going to have to scroll down about sixteen or seventeen bullet points on this page to view this news item. Sorry.) According to this Fox News report, John Edwards (D - NC) has already employed this tactic during his past Senate campaigns. No word yet as to whether the Dean car will have a Confederate flag painted on the roof.

One last endorsement note (do we spend too much time discussing endorsements as compared to their overall effect on voters?), Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley endorsed Dean back in December. Maybe I'm the only one who missed this, but I thought I'd share it anyway.

Tony

And Down The Stretch They Come!
With the Iowa caucuses rapidly approaching (Jan. 19), and Howard Dean still holding a slim lead there and a large lead in New Hampshire, the media jackals have begun baying for the blood of the frontrunner. You can't have a horse race without at least two horses.

In the NYT, Adam Nagourney reports a "tide of second thoughts" about Dean amongst Iowa Democrats. A Howard Fineman piece on MSNBC says Dean is now in the "danger zone":

Dean's own errors as a candidate and public speaker are well-known, but generally have been rendered harmless by the tactical and strategic skill of his campaign. Until now. For the first time, I'm seeing the Dean Team off its stride, behaving like mere mortals.

So:
The media ignores Dean's faults, proclaiming him a high-tech, feisty, outsider political genius, and Dean becomes the front-runner. But then, the media points out his overreliance on the internet, his angry, shoot-from-the-mouth tendencies, and the inexperienced "sophomoric strategizing" of the campaign staff, and now Dean is in the "danger zone".

BTW, both Nagourney and Fineman are projecting John "Botox" Kerry as the beneficiary of Dean's forthcoming collapse, for whatever that's worth.

Jay Rosen of Press Think has written an essay critical of the media's horse race syndrome. He likens it to the "inside baseball" conventional wisdom that prompted Bill James to create a new way of looking at the game:

James was originally a press critic. He came to his ideas via philosophical conflict with the sportswriters' tribe. He thought baseball journalists had a firm grasp on the wrong end of the telescope. They were looking at their subject in a way that shrank it to insignificance, compared to the big picture James saw by tinkering with different measures over longer arcs of time.

Read the whole thing, as Glenn Reynolds would say.

Marc